Jun. 2004Journal of China University of Mining &. TechnologyVol.14 No. 1Probe into Environmental K uznetsCharacteristics and Causes of W astewater，Waste Gas, and Solid Wastes in Wuhan CityLIU Yao- -bin(劉耀彬)', LI Ren- dong(李仁東)2(1. School of Management, CUMT, Xuzhou 221008，China;2. Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Science, Wuhan 430077, China)Abstract: Environmental K uznets characteristics and causes of waste water, waste gas, and solid wastes in W uhancity was researched; By comparing the variation of“three wastes", i.e. waste water, waste gas, and solid wastes，the model between standardized per capita GDP and values of“three wastes ”discharge was established and thecauses were analyzed based on the theory of environmental economics. The results show that 1) the total amount isfluctuantly increasing. but the discharges of the three kinds are temporarily different, 2) the curve conforms to thethree -power function， in which the curve descends from 1985 to 1994， and the curve preliminary shows theenvironmental Kuznets characteristics from 1995 to 2001，3) the simulated calculation ilustrates that the turningpoint of this environmental Kuznets curve would be over 25007. 25 Yuan per caprta， and 4) the economicdevelopment, changing of industry structure, energy resource structure, and environmental policies are the mainfactors leading to the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Wuhan city.Key words: discharge of“three wastes”; economic growth; Environmental Kuznets Curve; factorsCLC number: X 1Document code: A Article ID: 1006- 1266(2004)01- 003304Kuzenets Curve. Additionally， he advanced aIntroductionmathematics model based on the environmentalThere exists a kind of sequential coordinativecharacteristic values during lower revenue, shifting，relationshipbetween city development and itsand higher revenue phasest2l.ecologyenvironmentIl.In 1982， AmericanWuhan as a metropolis in the middle belt ineconomists Grossman and Krueger， who wereChina，its environmental quality lagged behindenlightened by K uzenets posing“Inverse U”curve,other metropolises according to the Nationalfirstly advanced“Environmental Kuzenets Curve”Environment Data Bulletin in 2001，which indicatessupposition for developed countries according to thethat its ecology environment is bad and not innorm that some developed countries had undergoneharmony with the goal of“ Ecology Parks andpreliminarily quick growth， serious pollution andInternational Metropolis ”that Wuhan governmentthen the improvement of environment quality.pursues. How to improve the sustainable developingAfter the following years， Bonaton ( Internationalcapability of Wuhan city without hinderingDevelopment Institute of Harvard University )economic development is an important issue facingcollected a mount of relevant data bet ween economic中國煤化工fact， although theredevelopment andenvironmentalquality from .THCNMHGenets Curve,wecandevelopinganddevelopedcountries，andCOnL1O1 allu 111p1UvC L110curve features to make itdemonstratedtheexistence of Environmentalhave three different trends by taking market andReceived date: 2003- 10- 13Foundatiqn i果Hey Knowledge Innovative Project of Chinese Academy of Science (KZCX2 SW-415)Biography!薩說bin (1970-)， male, from Macheng, Hubei province, doctoral student, engaged in the research on city and regionalplanning and management.3Journal of China University of Mining &. TechnologyVol. 14 No. 1policy measures'3], and approach the environmental2 Variation of“Wastes” Dischargegoal (Fig. 1). In 2001 the discharges of“ threeIn April 1984， Wuhan environment protection .wastes"，i. e . waste water，waste gas, and solidbureau was established and two years later thewaste，mount to 683. 56 million tons， 195. 01branches were also set up， which indicated thatbillion tons, and 5. 30 million tons, respectively. Itenvironmental protection was in a legislative stage ins of practicalsignificance tresearchtheWuhan. In order to study the characteristics ofEnvironmental Kuzenets Curve characteristics andEnvironmental K uzenetsCurveundernewcauses between economic development and“ threeconditions，we have objectively collected thewastes”discharge.discharge of“three wastes”and relevant economicFig.1 is an inversed Environmental Kuzenets .dataduring1985- 2001.For convenientlyCurve in Wuhan city. In Fig. 1, Curve A shows theanalyzing the changing characteristics of“ threesituationnwhichenvironmentaldamagewastes”discharge, we have individually made threedegeneration may reach the ecology thresholdcurve figures (Fig. 2). From Fig. 2a we can see thatwithout considering the environmental cost. Inthe discharge of waste water in W uhan graduallycurve B, part of the environmental cost is taken intodecreased from 1985 to 1997， but it undulatinglyaccount. In this situation, we can make the curveincreased after 1998. From Fig. 2b, it can be seenbe smooth and environmental worsening peakthat the discharge of waste gas basically rised fromdescended by drafting discharge standard，discharge1985 to 2001. However, the discharge decreased byfees，and executing discharge certificate trade. In12.4% after 2000. And in Fig. 2c, the discharge ofcurve C, all the environmental cost has been takensolid waste cyclically fluctuated, in which the firstinto account. We can make the peak be furtherperiod was between 1985 and 1990 ，the seconddescended, thus the damage of ecology environmentperiod between 1991 and 1996， and between 1997may reach the lowest by further restrictingand 2001 was the third period, but the fact is thatdischarge standard, increasing discharge fees， andthe total discharge increased.stopping unfavorable pensions for environment.According to the above analysis， we can findthat the total discharge undulatingly increases ,Ecologyi thresholdwhich on one hand, shows that the characteristics品of Environmental Kuzenets Curve is not apparent ，Economic developing levelon the other hand， the task of environmentprotection facing local government is very hard. .Fig. 1 Environment Kuznets Curves underEspecially，the discharge of waste gas cannot bedifferent policiesignored.00000250001000080000200008000專600藝150006000廠400040050002000Year(a) Waste water(6中國煤化工(C) sdid wasteFig.2 Discharge of waste water, waste gas and:TYHCNMHG985-.20013 Characteristics and Causes of the Curvedischarge，it is necessary to standardize the data.To further analyze the result， the Data Weighted3.1 CharacteristicsMethod is used. The formula isIn view o fifferent units of “three wastes”對=/r;LIU Yao-bin et al.Probe into Environmental Kuznets Characteristics and Causes ..X => w;x),1994，the industrial structure had been rapidlywhere x)，2i;，w，and X stand for standard value，adjusted and the weights among three industrieswere12.8:60.8:26.4in1985，butin1994itsprimaryvalue，weights， and weighted value ，weights became 9. 1 : 49. 9 : 41.0. From the ratiorespectively.Per capita GDP is usually a comprehensiveof three industries in the two periods. It is revealedindex to be adopted in economic analysis. In orderthat the second industry shrunk and the tertiaryto simply build an economic model, the paper refersindustry rapidly expanded. The weights of the threeto the standardized per capita GDP as Y , and“threeindustries shifted from 10 : 48.6 : 41.4 to 6.7 :44. 2 : 49.1 during 19952001. Althoughwastes”standardized value as X，to construct theindustrial structure surpassed the first period， it:Regression Model4].With regression analysischanging trends also kept the same with themethod，we can find that the model is a three-characteristics of Environmental Kuzenets Curve.power function.Thirdly，energy structure shifting is also anY = 0.2546- 4.2396X + 53. 7759X2- 167. 69X3important factorl7. The weight of coal among allR*=0.82，F(xiàn)= 19. 78 sigF = 0.0000.energy resources diminished from 40. 1% toThe function is simulated and the curve37.25%，but the weight of raw oil increased fromapproximately shows a U-shaped curve. The R14.4% to 16. 1% from 1985 to 1994. The weightvalue is 0. 82, and F is 119. 78，which implies theof coal used almost stabilized between 1995 andfunction passes the significant test and so the curve2001，but the weight of raw oil used continuallyis not a standard Environmental K uzenets Curve.increased from 16% to 17. 3%，which can explainThe regression result shows that there obviouslythe changing characteristics of waste gas dischargeexists a three-power curve and it can be divided into>n the one hand， and show the uniqueness oftwoperiodsaccordingthechangingEnvironmental Kuzenets Curve in Wuhan on the .characteristics，in which the discharge of“ threeother.wastes”continuallydeceased with economicAt last, policies also affect the characteristics ofdevelopment during 1985- - 1994, and the dischargeEnvironmental Kuzenets Curve.When Wuhaninversely increased from 1995 to 2001.environment protection bureau and its local branches3.2 Causeswere set up in 1980s， the environmental protectionThereare manyfactors to explaintask had become local government agenda. ThereEnvironmental K uzenets Curve in Wuhan.were three key tasks for them. The first was to deal .First of all, economic development is a primarywith industrial pollution, the second to approach thefactorl5. It is an unusual period that W uhanenvironmental goal designed beforehand， and the .economy had been quickly developing during 1985-third to emphasize district environment protection.2001 with the annual growth rate of GDPAt the begining， the administrative measures(according to firm price in 1990) reacheing 10. 2%.helpedWuhan city to be shifted fromOn the contrary, it is a slow growth period during“manufacturing city” to“l(fā)iving city”， when the1985- 1994 with the annual growth rate being onlydischarge of“three wastes”was easy to control. But8.3%，but there existed a quick growth periodafter 1990s the key aims were “ environmentduring 1994 - 2001 with the annual growth rate of中國煤化工ark construction”， and11. 5%. Therefore, its Environmental Kuzenets.YHCNM HG°on restricting totalCurve shows a three- power curve characteristic indischarge amount and lmiting time to achievecomparison of economic developing with “ threeenvironmental aims. With rapid development ofwastes”discharge.economy, the different administrative models led toSecon月方數(shù)據(jù)ustrial structure adjustment istwo different results, i. e. the curve descended ialso an important momentum!From 1985 tothe former period and ascended in the latter period.3Journal of China University of Mining &. TechnologyVol. 14 No. 1In fact， the characteristics of Environmentalcontinually increase. However, when the dischargeKuzenets Curve in Wuhan are similar to that insurpasses the peak value, it will gradually decrease，China as a whole[8]. From the data，some scholarswhile after 2009 the total environmental quality willhave concluded from the relationship betweenbe greatly improved.energy resources and its consumption that in 1980 s4 Concl usionsEnvironmentalKuzenetsCurveofenergyconsumption first descended, and when per capita1) From the time analysis of“three wastes”GDP surpassed RMB 2 939 Yuan the curvedischarge，the totaldischarge undulatinglygradually ascended. The curve in Wuhan also showsincreased，but the discharge amount of differentthe similar characteristics after 1995， which waswastes differs very much.closely related to local economicdevelopment2) From the curve we can find that the curvelevel[0].In 1990s the economy in W uhandoes not completely show an“inverse U" shape. Insuccessfully softly landed and stepped into theview of changing characteristics， the curve can besustainable rapid path. To keep pace with economicdivided into two phases， one of which graduallydevelopment，the Environmental Kuzenets Curvedescended before 1995，and after 1 995 the standardbegins to appear.Environmental Kuzenets Curve began to take on. In3.3 Theoretical turning point of the curveaddition，having simulated three power curve, weAccording to the three- power function incan find that the theoretical turning point of perWuhan between economic development and“ threecapita GDP is RMB 25 007. 25 Yuan. At the samewastes" discharge，the theoretical calculation showstime，in terms of the above analysis， economicthat the turning point of the curve is 0. 161 659development stages， policies， industrial structure( standardized Per Capita GDP value)， its presentshifting，and environmental administration arvalue is about RMB 25 007. 25 Yuan， and itsproved to be four important momentum factors,matching years is 2009. According to the abovewhich simultaneously affects the features ofanalysis, there are about 6 years for the discharge toEnvironmental Kuzenets Curve in W uhan.References[1] 黃金川，方創(chuàng)琳.城市化與生態(tài)環(huán)境交互耦合機制與規(guī)律性分析[J].地理研究, 2003,20(2):211-220.[2] 歷以寧，章錚.環(huán)境經(jīng)濟學[M].北京:中國計劃出版社，1997. 178-183.[3] 李周，包曉斌.中國環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線的估計[J].科技導報，2002 ,57(5) :553- 560.[4] 沈滿洪，許云華、-種新型的環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線[J]. 浙江社會科學，2000(4): 53-57.[5]楊凱，葉茂，徐啟剛.上海市廢棄物增長的環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線特征研究[J].地理研究，2003,22(1):60-66.[6] 袁雯，楊凱.上海城市環(huán)境經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)發(fā)展過程的數(shù)量分析[J]. 地理研究,2002. 21(1):97- 106.[7] 張帆.環(huán)境與自然資源經(jīng)濟學[M].上海:上海人民出版社，1998.[8]趙明，何丹.城市規(guī)劃中的環(huán)境問題[J].城市規(guī)劃匯刊，2000(2):54-59.[9] 曾艷紅，蔡述明.地理環(huán)境對近代武漢城市經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響[J]. 長江流域資源與環(huán)境，2002, 11(4):358- 362.中國煤化工MHCNMHG