中國(guó)風(fēng)電定價(jià)政策研究A STUDY ON THE PRICING POLICY OF WIND POWER IN CHINA
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中國(guó)在發(fā)展風(fēng)力發(fā)電方面取得了巨大的進(jìn)步。截至2005年,已建成61個(gè)風(fēng)電場(chǎng),安裝1864臺(tái)并網(wǎng)型風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)??傃b機(jī)容量已達(dá)1260兆瓦。中國(guó)政府去年調(diào)整了風(fēng)電發(fā)展目標(biāo),將其從2萬(wàn)兆瓦提高到2020年的30兆瓦,使其成為全球第七大市場(chǎng)和亞洲第二大市場(chǎng)。
2006年1月1日生效的《可再生能源法》為中國(guó)可再生能源的發(fā)展提供了一個(gè)法律框架,其中包括建立其電力輸出的支付系統(tǒng),然而,國(guó)內(nèi)外的風(fēng)電開(kāi)發(fā)商、投資商和制造商。hav&對(duì)現(xiàn)行的風(fēng)電定價(jià)政策表示嚴(yán)重懷疑,認(rèn)為這并沒(méi)有為風(fēng)電價(jià)格學(xué)的持續(xù)快速發(fā)展鋪平道路。特別值得關(guān)注的是,新法繼續(xù)實(shí)行通過(guò)公開(kāi)招標(biāo)確定風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目并網(wǎng)電價(jià)的政策。這讓潛在投資者望而卻步。
特許權(quán)招標(biāo)過(guò)程
我國(guó)某風(fēng)電機(jī)組的動(dòng)力傳動(dòng)系統(tǒng)具有較好的適應(yīng)性。在第一階段,風(fēng)電開(kāi)發(fā)由海外援助基金提供資金,支付的phee低于0 3元/kWh,與第二階段的燃煤電廠類(lèi)似,電價(jià)由地方政府決定,報(bào)中央政府,從相對(duì)較低的價(jià)格到1.2元/kWh不等。在第三階段,從2002年開(kāi)始,通過(guò)競(jìng)標(biāo)特許權(quán)項(xiàng)目來(lái)決定關(guān)稅。這些地點(diǎn)位于中央政府通過(guò)國(guó)家發(fā)改委選定的地區(qū)。
到目前為止,已經(jīng)連續(xù)四輪招標(biāo)的風(fēng)電場(chǎng)特許經(jīng)營(yíng)項(xiàng)目數(shù)量已超過(guò)100兆瓦,每個(gè)項(xiàng)目的裝機(jī)容量。為了鼓勵(lì)國(guó)內(nèi)渦輪制造業(yè),中國(guó)制造了50%以上的Aquipmenl musl。發(fā)電量的付款按中標(biāo)率定為30000英鎊
運(yùn)行小時(shí)數(shù),然后下降到塔爾之后的平均電價(jià)水平。合同有效期為25年。以最低的電網(wǎng)購(gòu)買(mǎi)價(jià)格和最高的本地化生產(chǎn)比例承諾的潛在開(kāi)發(fā)公司通常會(huì)中標(biāo)
在最初的幾輪談判之后,特許權(quán)程序已經(jīng)發(fā)生了變化。這些措施包括將制造業(yè)占比提高到70%,在決定中標(biāo)時(shí)引入其他因素(除了pnee)。包括技術(shù)和商業(yè)問(wèn)題,以及制造商通過(guò)制定明確的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃直接參與的機(jī)會(huì)。
特許權(quán)招標(biāo)過(guò)程中的cxpcnccxj已公開(kāi),wcnkncaca的編號(hào)。其中最重要的一點(diǎn)是,以最低投標(biāo)價(jià)中標(biāo)的決定鼓勵(lì)了企業(yè),特別是國(guó)有企業(yè),承諾以不合理的低價(jià)格中標(biāo)。在這個(gè)過(guò)程中,他們要么進(jìn)行了ov&r估算,要么低估了風(fēng)力機(jī)和維護(hù)的成本。其結(jié)果是,即使在最近對(duì)該計(jì)劃進(jìn)行了調(diào)整之后,他們?nèi)詿o(wú)法從中獲得合理回報(bào),價(jià)格仍然是最重要的決定因素。這些低廉的價(jià)格阻礙了其他企業(yè)的參與。
預(yù)計(jì)2006年《可再生能源法》將在這一過(guò)程中作出改變。然而,對(duì)風(fēng)力發(fā)電行業(yè)失望的是,它并沒(méi)有按照其他國(guó)家的規(guī)定引入關(guān)稅壁壘,而是維持現(xiàn)有的招標(biāo)制度。
海外經(jīng)驗(yàn)
在世界其他地區(qū),特別是歐洲,各國(guó)政府引入了一系列機(jī)制來(lái)支持風(fēng)能和其他可再生技術(shù)。其中最成功的是德國(guó)和西班牙等國(guó)的上網(wǎng)電價(jià)制度。通過(guò)支付高于市場(chǎng)價(jià)格的固定溢價(jià)率,這些系統(tǒng)創(chuàng)造了一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境,到2005年,第三個(gè)項(xiàng)目dovolopmcnt和國(guó)內(nèi)制造業(yè)已經(jīng)能夠在這個(gè)環(huán)境中得到滋養(yǎng)。在12個(gè)歐洲國(guó)家(39.7千兆瓦)中,90%的風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量是在那些實(shí)施饋入式tarrff政策的國(guó)家。
類(lèi)似于在中國(guó)運(yùn)作的招標(biāo)系統(tǒng)的經(jīng)驗(yàn),例如英國(guó)的非化石燃料義務(wù),并不樂(lè)觀。在NFFQ風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目的前十年里,成功地贏得了總計(jì)1150兆瓦的合同,而實(shí)際建造和生產(chǎn)的inai容量只有151兆瓦,成功率僅為13%。
China has rucunlly niddH grttal strides in developing wind power. By IhB Hiid of 2005, 61 wind farms had been built and 1,864 grid-conncctcd wind turbine generators installed. The total installed capacity had reached 1,260 MW. making it the seventh largest market in the world and the second largest in Asia Last year, the Chinese government modified its wind power development target, raising it from 20,000 MW to 30,ODO MW by 2020.
The Renewable Energy Law which came Into effect on 1 January 2006, provides a legal framework tor the development of renewable energy in China, including the establishment of a payment system for their electricity output, However, wind developers, invesiors and manufacturers, both at home and abroad. hav& serious doubts about the current wind pricing policy and consider that it does not pave the way for tho continusd rapid development of the tedmology. Of particular concern is that the new law continues the policy of cfeciding the grid-connected pov^er price for wind power projects through a public request for tenders. This is deterring potential investors.
The concession bidding process
Tliere have bettn Hues pliasbS in dtivtilapnidiU of a wind power turifY syslam In China. In the first phase, wind power developments were funded by overseas aid funds and the phee paid was less than 0 3 yuan/kWh similar to that for coal-fired plants In the second phase, the tariff was decided by local government reported to central government and varied from a relatively low price up to 1.2 yuan/kWh. In the third phase, from 2002 onwards, tariffs have been decided by competitive bidding For concession projacls. These are located in regional sites selected by central government through the National Development and Reform Commission.
To date there have boon four successive rounds of bidding fora number of concession wind farm projects Each project has been over 100 MW installed capacity. In order to encourage a domestic turbine mAnufaclunng industry more than 50% of the Aquipmenl musl be made in China. Payment for the electricity output is set at the rate of the winning bid up to 30.000
hours of operation and then falls after thal to the level of the average electricity price. Contracts run for 25 years. The prospective development company which commits to the lowest grid purchase price and the highest proportion of localised production usually wins the bid
Changes have been made to the concession process after the initial rounds. These include an increase in the proportion of doiTiestic manufacture to 70%, the introduction of other factors in deciding the successful bid (apart from pnee). including technical and commercial issues and an opportunity lor menufseturers to participete directly by preparing a clear plan for domestic production.
The cxpcncncxj of the concession bidding process haa exposed & numbor of wcnkncaaca. The most important of these is that the decision to make the lowest bid the winning bid has encouraged companies, especially state-owned enterprises, to commit to an unreasonably low price in order to win Ih色 contract. In the process they have either ov&r-estimated the wind resource and cioctncity generation or underestimated tho cost of the wind turbines and maintenance. The result has been a project from which they will be unable to make a reasonable return Even after the more recent adaptations to the scheme, price has continued to be the most important deciding factor. These low prices have discouraged other enterprises from participating.
it was anticipated that the 2006 Renewable Energy Law would make changes co this process. Much to the disappointment of the wind power industry, however, it did not introduce a fccd-in tariff along the lines of those operating other countries but maintained the existing bidding system
Overseas experience
In other parts of the world, especially Europe a range of mechanisms has been introduced by governments to support wind energy and other renewable technologies. The most successful of these have been the feed-in tariff systems operating in countries like Germany and Spain. Through paying a fixed premium rate above the market price foreledricity, these systems hove created n stable economic onvironmcm in which tx>th project dovolopmcnt and domestic manufacture have been able to nourish By 2005. 90% of the total wind installed capacity in 12 European countries (39.7 GW) had been in those implementing feed-in-tarrff policies.
The experience of tendering systems similar to that operating in China, such as the Non- Fossil Fuel Obligation in the UK has not been positive. In the first ten years of the NFFQ wind pov^'ar contracts totaling 1,150 MW were successfully won Howaver, only 151 MW of inai capacity was actually built and produced power, a success rate of just 13%.
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